Probability of Default 12-month Probability of Default( Last Update : 29 June 2026 ) Rating PD (Default Events Only) PD (Default & Deferral Events) AAA0.014038%0.015094% AA+0.016103%0.016666% AA0.020902%0.020919% AA-0.032696%0.036006% A+0.062671%0.085557% A0.123945%0.192736% A-0.257503%0.368153% BBB+0.554958%0.673667% BBB0.997917%1.151319% BBB-1.445700%1.875878% BB+1.934655%2.912418% BB2.488875%4.070173% BB-3.039960%4.995463% B+3.615564%5.844750% B4.611472%7.226819% B-7.912213%10.952993% CCC30.848573%30.837945% Default100.000000%100.000000% The Matrix is engineered by Bond Pricing and Product Development Department, ThaiBMA. No Subject Type Download 1 "12-month" and "Lifetime" Probability of Default Events Only (As of 2026) XLSX 2 "12-month" and "Lifetime" Probability of Default & Deferral Events (As of 2026) XLSX Credit Transition Matrix One-Year Credit Transition Matrix — Based on Default Events Only Initial Rating Rating after 1 Year AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC Default AAA 90.283757% 8.979709% 0.511517% 0.030282% 0.100349% 0.030174% 0.050174% 0.014038% AA 0.454425% 91.202000% 7.738912% 0.447368% 0.052566% 0.062767% 0.021060% 0.020902% A 0.058723% 2.473497% 94.614193% 2.556654% 0.154614% 0.015851% 0.002524% 0.123945% BBB 0.000943% 0.046893% 3.710987% 91.123947% 3.863004% 0.246959% 0.009349% 0.997917% BB 0.001046% 0.007051% 0.138609% 6.771257% 85.372511% 5.032674% 0.187976% 2.488875% B 0.001005% 0.019215% 0.057371% 0.216518% 5.363943% 83.996077% 5.734400% 4.611472% CCC 0.000514% 0.001847% 0.081580% 0.150188% 0.532734% 15.406145% 52.978419% 30.848573% Default 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 100.000000% One-Year Credit Transition Matrix — Based on Default and Deferral Events Initial Rating Rating after 1 Year AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC Default AAA 90.282750% 8.979658% 0.511425% 0.030283% 0.100481% 0.030174% 0.050135% 0.015094% AA 0.454423% 91.201992% 7.737710% 0.447367% 0.053742% 0.062791% 0.021055% 0.020919% A 0.061526% 2.534870% 94.732421% 2.413203% 0.051824% 0.011395% 0.002024% 0.192736% BBB 0.000946% 0.048176% 3.709100% 91.117123% 3.712925% 0.247485% 0.012925% 1.151319% BB 0.003769% 0.013225% 0.120081% 5.845103% 84.412425% 5.198660% 0.336564% 4.070173% B 0.001008% 0.017996% 0.052691% 0.206660% 5.822492% 80.510086% 6.162248% 7.226819% CCC 0.000514% 0.001809% 0.081465% 0.152059% 0.596292% 15.401521% 52.928395% 30.837945% Default 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 0.000000% 100.000000% The Matrix is engineered by Bond Pricing and Product Development Department, ThaiBMA, in collaboration with Thammasat Business School. No Subject Type Download 1 ThaiBMA Credit Transition Matrix — Based on Default Events Only (As of 2026) XLSX 2 ThaiBMA Credit Transition Matrix — Based on Default and Deferral Events (As of 2026) XLSX Related Article No Subject Type Download 1 การกำหนดเมทริกซ์ความน่าจะเป็น ของการเปลี่ยนแปลงอันดับเครดิตของตราสารหนี้ไทย ซึ่งมีคุณสมบัติสอดคล้องเต็มที่กับทฤษฎีการเงิน โดย ศ.ดร.อัญญา ขันธวิทย์ PDF 2 The Probability of Default Under IFRS 9: Multi-Period Estimation and Macroeconomic Forecast โดย Tomaš Vaněk และ David Hampel PDF User Guide No Subject Type Download 1 การประมาณค่าความน่าจะเป็นการผิดนัดชำระหนี้และมูลค่าความสูญเสียการผิดนัดชำระหนี้ของตราสารหนี้ไทย (Estimating Probability of Default and Loss Given Default for Thai Fixed Income Securities) โดย สมาคมตลาดตราสารหนี้ไทย PDF Remark: The results are prepared using credit rating information from recognized credit rating agencies. Prior to 2026, the analysis was based solely on TRIS Rating data. Starting in 2026, Fitch Ratings (Thailand) data have also been incorporated, where available, to enhance the completeness and representativeness of the underlying dataset. All rating information has been validated and consolidated, with data adjustments applied where necessary to ensure methodological consistency. The results are presented under two calculation bases: (1) default events only, and (2) default and deferral events.